With Erdogan in Pak’s corner, how should India deal with Turkiye?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “brotherly” support to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after the heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam, followed by official statements condemning India’s retaliatory strikes and bringing up the Kashmir issue, were not merely expressions of its unwavering support for Pakistan, but also clearly unfriendly towards India. Add to that the deployment of Turkish military drones by Pakistan, and it’s not surprising that many outraged Indians are calling for a boycott of Turkiye.Indeed, Turkish statements outdid even those from China! Though its military support was of a much lower scale, the popular sentiment in India was provoked more by Turkiye, as there was a perception that they were a friendly country.In fact, Turkiye has always been closer to Pakistan than India. Since the 1950s, as alliance partners of the US and with a bilateral defence pact, they have grown closer. While earlier secular Turkish governments sought a balanced approach and independent ties with India despite differences on political issues such as Cyprus, Armenia and Kashmir, this changed after Erdogan assumed office. He was more strident in his support for “brothers” in Pakistan and condemned India for alleged assaults on minorities and destabilising Kashmir.Erdogan’s pronouncements became more frequent after the abrogation of Article 370, and he used international platforms like the UN General Assembly, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and meetings with Pakistani leaders to criticise India. As Erdogan lapsed into a framework of looking at India through the lens of Pakistan, three factors drew Turkiye and Pakistan closer.First, Pakistan became an ally in Turkiye’s Islamist project. With most Arabs sceptical, it became the springboard for the spread of Turkish ideas to Central Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Turkiye’s growing influence in Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Malaysia also benefited from links with the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet, it was unable to make a breakthrough in India despite several attempts.Second, their relations benefited from the personal chemistry between leaders. Erdogan regarded Nawaz Sharif as his brother and the goodwill passed on to Shehbaz. While there was friction initially with Imran Khan, that was soon erased to build similar bonds of brotherhood. The big Pakistani diaspora living in Turkiye also built family ties.Third, although Pakistan was a smaller economic partner than India, it was important to the buoyant military-industrial sector, linked to the ruling AK Party. Pakistan, heavily reliant on Chinese military hardware, found access to western technology through Turkiye, a Nato member plugged into the western weaponry regime. Amidst Turkiye’s economic distress, the Pakistan order-book for building naval ships, upgrading fighter aircraft, sale of military drones, electronic warfare equipment and military exercises strengthened bonds between new elites. medium nocaptionhttps://vha.fatv8.com/2qx71_4xjutlq/u.be/z8FzKglpxAU?si=1-KsLWJ9ft04q4JUBut while it is important to diminish the salience of Pakistan, India does not conduct foreign policy through a Pakistan lens. It seeks to craft a relationship with Turkiye that is independent and advances our national interest. After all, Turkiye is a rising power with an active diplomatic footprint in regional and global affairs as well as in our neighbourhood. As a member of G20, it has a strong and diverse economy, though it faces challenges. Politically, the country is split between the dominant ruling AK Party and a struggling opposition. Erdogan remains the most charismatic leader, but his mandate has been shrinking.India-Turkiye relations have strong economic relevance, though they may differ on certain political and strategic issues. Our two-way trade tops $10bn, investments are $480mn, joint ventures and technology tie-ups facilitate supply chains and Turkish companies are engaged in key infrastructure projects in India.The popular outrage and boycott calls on tourism or imports may have a limited effect on the Turkish economy, but its sentimental impact may be larger. An assertive Indian diplomatic response will be necessary to counter Turkiye’s statements in global forums such as the UN, Financial Action Task Force (FATF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and expose their hypocrisy in OIC, where Turkiye is a key member of the Kashmir contact group.Already, Turkiye (along with China) stands isolated in its support for Pakistan, as its sponsorship of terrorism is acknowledged by most. India’s robust military response to Turkish drones warded off damage this time, but our preparedness will need to be upgraded as their capabilities are significant.In an earlier instance, India had cancelled a contract with a Turkish shipyard to build fleet support ships for our Navy as we developed indigenous capacity. Doubtless, projects of strategic significance will be evaluated with caution as long as Turkiye speaks the language of Pakistan. Economic and infrastructure collaborations will be reviewed from the perspective of efficiency and contribution to our development objectives.Turkiye’s attitude during the recent terrorist strike by Pakistan has exposed its weakness. India can avoid similar missteps and independently engage Turkiye on a path that prioritises our national interest and role in global affairs.The writer was ambassador to Turkiye. Currently professor of diplomatic practice at OP Jindal Global University